Climate Change Alarm (SR15)

Laatst kwam ik een berichtje tegen dat het IPPC te optimistisch is. Het gaat immers voorbij aan de combinatie van verschillende ontwikkelingen. ALS de temperatuur stijgt,smelt het ijs en stijgt de zeespiegel en is er minder leefgebied en landbouwgrond en minder insecten en minder dit en minder dat en ga zo maar door....

Erg dystopisch beeld. Maar als ik op google zoek vind ik nog meer alarmisme:

FE AFTER WARMING OCT. 10, 2018
UN Says Climate Genocide Is Coming. It’s Actually Worse Than That.
By David Wallace-Wells
... the international goal it established of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius began to seem, to many of the world’s most vulnerable, dramatically inadequate; the Marshall Islands’ representative gave it a blunter name, calling two degrees of warming “genocide.”
... Hundreds of millions of lives are at stake, the report declares, should the world warm more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, which it will do as soon as 2040, if current trends continue. Nearly all coral reefs would die out, wildfires and heat waves would sweep across the planet annually, and the interplay between drought and flooding and temperature would mean that the world’s food supply would become dramatically less secure. Avoiding that scale of suffering, the report says, requires such a thorough transformation of the world’s economy, agriculture, and culture that “there is no documented historical precedent.” The New York Times declared that the report showed a “strong risk” of climate crisis in the coming decades; in Grist, Eric Holthaus wrote that “civilization is at stake.”
If you are alarmed by those sentences, you should be — they are horrifying. But it is, actually, worse than that — considerably worse. That is because the new report’s worst-case scenario is, actually, a best case. In fact, it is a beyond-best-case scenario. What has been called a genocidal level of warming is already our inevitable future. The question is how much worse than that it will get.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/un-says-climate-genocide-coming-but-its-worse-than-that.html

Climate change impacts worse than expected, global report warns
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says the world is headed for painful problems sooner than expected, as emissions keep rising.
5 MINUTE READ
BY STEPHEN LEAHY
PUBLISHED OCTOBER 7, 2018
The impacts and costs of 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) of global warming will be far greater than expected, according to a comprehensive assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released Sunday in Incheon, South Korea.
The past decade has seen an astonishing run of record-breaking storms, forest fires, droughts, coral bleaching, heat waves, and floods around the world with just 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1.0 degrees Celsius) of global warming.
...While a 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) increase in room temperature is unnoticeable, permanently heating the whole planet that much will have “substantial” consequences, the report warns. The impacts will be felt across ecosystems and human communities and economies.
...
Global warming is like being in a mine field that gets progressively more dangerous, says Michael Mann, a climatologist and director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State. “The further we go the more explosions we are likely to set off: 1.5C is safer than 2C, 2C is safer than 2.5C, 2.5C is safer than 3C, and so on,” said Mann, who was not directly involved in this latest IPCC report.
“Stabilizing global warming at 1.5C will be extremely difficult if not impossible at this point,” Mann said via email.
...
The Special Report is like getting a troubling diagnosis from your doctor, said Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University. “Every possible test has been done and the news is not good,” Hayhoe said in an interview. “The doctor, the IPCC in this case, then explains possible treatment options to ensure our future health. We (the public) decide which option to follow.”
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/10/ipcc-report-climate-change-impacts-forests-emissions/

The IPCC global warming report spares politicians the worst details
Bob Ward
Mon 8 Oct 2018 09.00 BST
The dangers if governments ignore efforts to limit warming to 1.5C are more grave than the summary makes out...‘There is no mention in the report’s summary of important thresholds that might, for example, cause shifts in the occurrence of the monsoons in Africa or Asia.’.... The report is a comprehensive review of the published evidence painstakingly compiled by hundreds of authors and reviewers over the past two and a half years. The summary of the report was approved line by line by governments, including the US, Australia and Saudi Arabia, during long and intensive discussions last week in South Korea.
It is written in matter-of-fact language, but it omits some of the biggest risks of climate change, which are described in the full text.
For instance, the summary indicates that warming of 2C would have very damaging impacts on many parts of the world. But it does not mention the potential for human populations to migrate and be displaced as a result, leading to the possibility of war.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/08/world-leaders-climate-change-ipcc-report

Precipice of Doom: the dire implications of the IPCC 2018 climate report for New York City and State
Stephen Metts
Oct 17, 2018
It doesn’t take much effort to get to page 6 of the IPCC 2018 Summary for Policy Makers where readers are faced with a cataclysmic, cliff-like chart plotting an extremely compressed time frame in which the world must flat-line at net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to avoid just the worst of run-away climate impacts....
https://medium.com/@mettss/precipice-of-doom-the-dire-implications-of-the-ipcc-2018-climate-report-for-new-york-city-and-3fac68af9073

Climate Change: Even Worse Than We Thought
Things to get very gnarly by 2040, IPCC writes
Y HEATHER SMITH | OCT 8 2018
Humans can still prevent the worst effects of climate change, says the newest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But we have less time than anyone hoped to undertake a dramatic and speedy transformation of the global economy that, the IPCC scientists concede, has “no documented historic precedent.”
While the countries that signed on to the Paris Agreement promised to work together to prevent atmospheric warming of more than 3.6°F (2°C), the IPCC report released Sunday concludes that the dire effects predicted to happen at 3.6°F are likely to occur much sooner, at 2.7°F (1.5°C).
That means those dire effects are not far away. The atmosphere has, on average, warmed 1.8°F since the Industrial Revolution (with the majority of that caused by an exponential growth in the use of oil, gas, and coal after the 1950s). If greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate, atmospheric warming will reach 2.7°F around 2040—a little over 20 years from now. .... In this scenario, 2040 will not be a great time to live. The world’s coral reefs will have declined by 70 to 90 percent from their current levels. Many marine and coastal ecosystems will have crashed beyond the point of recovery. The famines, floods, heat waves, polar vortexes, wildfires, hurricanes, and tropical cyclones that have dominated the news recently will increase in number and ferocity.

All of the report’s warnings are couched in very careful, scientific language, because the IPCC is a very cautious, scientific group. It was created by the United Nations Environmental Programme and the World Meteorological Organization in 1988 to serve as a trusted source of information about climate change.
The group’s reports are written by volunteer scientists from around the world who synthesize their conclusions from thousands of peer-reviewed studies. The synthesis is slow, thorough, and involves a lot of consensus-based decision making (consensus doesn’t absolutely have to be reached on every statement in the report, but the scientists involved do have to agree the science behind each statement is accurate).
This gives the IPCC an unusual reputation. Some climate researchers have often accused the IPCC of actually being too mild in its assessment of the danger we’re all in...
https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/climate-change-even-worse-we-thought-ipcc-report

Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040
By Coral Davenport
Oct. 7, 2018
... INCHEON, South Korea — A landmark report from the United Nations’ scientific panel on climate change paints a far more dire picture of the immediate consequences of climate change than previously thought and says that avoiding the damage requires transforming the world economy at a speed and scale that has “no documented historic precedent.”
The report, issued on Monday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of scientists convened by the United Nations to guide world leaders, describes a world of worsening food shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040 — a period well within the lifetime of much of the global population.
The report “is quite a shock, and quite concerning,” said Bill Hare, an author of previous I.P.C.C. reports and a physicist with Climate Analytics, a nonprofit organization.
... “This report makes it clear: There is no way to mitigate climate change without getting rid of coal,” said Drew Shindell, a climate scientist at Duke University and an author of the report.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html

Wake Up, World Leaders. The Alarm Is Deafening.
The U.N.’s climate panel warns leaders the time for dithering on climate change is over.
By The Editorial Board
The editorial board represents the opinions of the board, its editor and the publisher. It is separate from the newsroom and the Op-Ed section.
Oct. 9, 2018
New research has found that wildfires are likely to worsen if steps are not taken to combat climate change.
Credit Noah Berger/Associated Press
...
When a cautious, science-based and largely apolitical group like the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says the world must utterly transform its energy systems in the next decade or risk ecological and social disaster, attention must be paid.
The panel, created in 1988, synthesizes the findings of leading climate scientists, an undertaking for which it received the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. It is not in the habit of lecturing governments. But its latest report, issued near Seoul on Monday, is very different. One United Nations official described it as “a deafening, piercing smoke alarm going off in the kitchen” — an alarm aimed directly at world leaders. “Frankly, we’ve delivered a message to the governments,” said Jim Skea, a co-chairman of the panel and a professor at Imperial College, London. “It’s now their responsibility … to decide whether they can act on it.”... The report, written by 91 scientists from 40 countries, came about at the request of several small island nations that took part in the Paris talks, where 195 countries pledged their best efforts to limit increases in global warming to 3.6 degrees (2 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels. Fearing that their countries might someday be lost to rising seas, they asked the intergovernmental panel for further study of a lower threshold, 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius). The panel’s report concluded that the stricter threshold should become the new target. The alternative is catastrophe — mass die-offs of coral reefs, widespread drought, famine and wildfires, and potentially conflict over land, food and fresh water.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/opinion/climate-change-ipcc-report.html

Wacht even deze doemscenario's zijn gebaseerd op modellen:

Climate models project robust differences in regional climate characteristics between present-day and global warming of 1.5°C,and between 1.5°C and 2°C. These differences include increases in: mean temperature in most land and ocean regions (high confidence), hot extremes in most inhabited regions (high confidence), heavy precipitation in several regions (medium confidence), and the probability of drought and precipitation deficits in some regions (medium confidence). {3.3}
B.1.1. Evidence from attributed changes in some climate and weather extremes for a global warming of about 0.5°C supports the assessment that an additional 0.5°C of warming compared to present is associated with further detectable changes in these extremes (medium confidence). ... B.1.2. Temperature extremes on land are projected to warm more than GMST (high confidence): extreme hot days in mid-latitudes warm by up to about 3°C at global warming of 1.5°C and about 4°C at 2°C, and extreme cold nights in high latitudes warm by up to about 4.5°C at 1.5°C and about 6°C at 2°C (high confidence). The number of hot days is projected to increase in most land regions, with highest increases in the tropics (high confidence).... B.2. By 2100, global mean sea level rise is projected to be around 0.1 metre lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared to 2°C (medium confidence). Sea level will continue to rise well beyond 2100 (high confidence), and the magnitude and rate of this rise depend on future emission pathways. A slower rate of sea level rise enables greater opportunities for adaptation in the human and ecological systems of small islands, low-lying coastal areas and deltas (medium confidence)....B.2.1. Model-based projections of global mean sea level rise (relative to 1986–2005) suggest an indicative range of 0.26 to 0.77 m by 2100 for 1.5°C of global warming, 0.1 m (0.04–0.16 m) less than for a global warming of 2°C (medium confidence). A reduction of 0.1 m in global sea level rise implies that up to 10 million fewer people would be exposed to related risks, based on population in the year 2010 and assuming no adaptation (medium confidence)....B.4.1. There is high confidence that the probability of a sea ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer is substantially lower at global warming of 1.5°C when compared to 2°C. With 1.5°C of global warming, one sea ice-free Arctic summer is projected per century. ...B.5.2. Any increase in global warming is projected to affect human health, with primarily negative consequences (high confidence). Lower risks are projected at 1.5°C than at 2°C for heat-related morbidity and mortality (very high confidence) and for ozone-related mortality if emissions needed for ozone formation remain high (high confidence). Urban heat islands often amplify the impacts of heatwaves in cities (high confidence). Risks from some vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever, are projected to increase with warming from 1.5°C to 2°C, including potential shifts in their geographic range (high confidence).
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/summary-for-policy-makers/

Uiteraard zal 1,5°C in vergelijking met 2 of 3,5°C opwarming beter zijn in je rekenmodel. Maar hoe zijn die voorspellingen en verwachtingen? Hoe geloofwaardig is dit? De rampscenario's en toonzetting van de persberichten doen me sterk denken aan State of Fear van Michael Crichton...